Yahoo Finance UK’s Pedro Goncalves writes:
Oil prices extended last week’s losses on Monday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 4%, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.
Brent crude prices dropped 3.4% in Monday’s session to $63.04 a barrel at the time of writing. US WTI) crude lost 4.5% to $59.19 a barrel.
Oil prices plummeted 7% on Friday after China increased tariffs on US goods, deepening the trade war and leading investors to price in a higher likelihood of a global recession. Last week, Brent lost 10.9%, while WTI dropped 10.6%.
“It’s hard to see a floor for crude unless the panic in the markets subsides and it’s hard to see that happening unless Trump says something to arrest snowballing fears over a global trade war and recession,” Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, told Reuters.
ING commodity analysts also underscored the OPEC+ decision on output as a significant factor behind the recent drop in oil prices. They attributed the decision to three key factors: US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, US pressure on Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices, and a desire to punish overproducing nations like Iraq and Kazakhstan.
ING has now revised its oil price forecast for the year, expecting Brent crude to average $72 per barrel in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of $74 per barrel.
Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy at ING, said: “For now, our balance continues to show a modest deficit over 2Q25 and 3Q25, supporting our view that prices over this period should move modestly higher from current levels. However, this can change quickly, depending on OPEC+ policy and demand developments.”