Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I’m Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I’ll be talking about the recent rotation toward more cyclical parts of the equity market.
It’s Monday, Oct 14th at 11:30am in New York.
So let’s get after it.
Last Monday, we upgraded cyclicals relative to defensives after taking profits in our defensive overweight two weeks prior. These calls come on the back of September’s strong jobs report and our economists’ expectation for the Fed to still cut interest rates into next year. The resilient labor report effectively reverses the softness we saw in labor markets over the summer which had re-introduced hard landing risks into the markets, driving big outperformance in bonds and defensive stocks. In short, it was a good time to lock in profits after an historically good run.
Indeed, cyclical stocks have delivered better performance with these improved macro data. Importantly, the rates market is confirming this move. Oftentimes, the rates market tends to hold onto growth risks longer than the equity market. Thus, the recent move higher in yields following resilient data suggests the bond market pricing is shedding some of its growth concerns, and giving us more confidence in our cyclicals upgrade.
Furthermore, our cyclical overweights at the sector level in Industrials, Financials and Energy are all exhibiting a positive correlation to rates. Conversely, defensives are exhibiting a negative correlation to yields. In other words, good macro data is still good for many large cap cyclical stocks, while it’s bad for defensives. Thus, further stabilization in the economic surprise index should continue to support quality cyclicals’ relative performance even if it comes amid higher yields.
Meanwhile, positioning in cyclicals remains light amongst our institutional client base. This is particularly true for Financials. In our view, this creates opportunity in a sector that we upgraded to overweight last week. This upgrade was based on rebounding capital markets activity, a better loan growth environment in 2025, an acceleration in buybacks post Basel Endgame re-proposal, and attractive relative valuation. Finally, we also factored in the notion that several large cap bank stocks had de-risked in mid-September with lowered guidance ahead of earnings season. Initial results from earnings season last week indicate that large cap banks are clearing that lowered hurdle. On the other side of the coin, positioning in defensives and quality growth remains extended. This is consistent with our conversations with clients who generally remain positioned for a soft macro growth regime.
Given the significant influence of the Magnificent 7 stocks on the overall direction of the S&P 500, investors remain focused on how this group of stocks will trade into year-end. It’s notable this cohort has underperformed since the second quarter earnings season, and relative performance just took another leg lower. The breadth among this group has been somewhat narrow with only one of the seven making new highs since the summer in both absolute and relative terms. In our view, this may be one of the reasons for the better performance in other areas of the market and is a potential driver of further broadening into cyclicals. Of course, if the market reverts back to these stocks, it’s a risk to our cyclical upgrade.
Earnings season will be an important factor in terms of these rotations. The fundamental reason for the underperformance of the Magnificent 7 could simply be the deceleration in earnings growth from the very strong pace last year. If this underperformance continues, it could provide further fuel for the quality cyclicals to continue to do better as we expect. Conversely, if earnings revisions show relative strength for the Mag 7, these stocks will likely outperform once again and market leadership may narrow—like it did during [the] second quarter and all of 2023.
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