Is BTC in Danger of Another Drop to $50K

Following a significant downtrend, Bitcoin found strong support near the $50K threshold and experienced a notable rebound.

However, the price has now approached a substantial resistance region around the 200-day moving average at $61K, potentially completing a pullback.

Technical Analysis

By Shayan

The Daily Chart

A detailed examination of Bitcoin’s daily chart reveals a significant increase in buying pressure and demand near the critical $50K support region, resulting in a substantial bullish rebound.

Subsequently, BTC surged back toward a key resistance region, encompassing the 200-day moving average at $61K and the psychological resistance at $60K. This key area is likely filled with supply, which may result in substantial selling pressure and halt further upward momentum.

If the price faces rejection here, it could complete the pullback, leading to another impulsive bearish leg toward the crucial $50K threshold.

However, there is also a possibility of a sudden break above this critical juncture, potentially causing a short-squeeze event and leading to an impulsive surge. Bitcoin’s price action near the critical $60K region will be crucial in determining its next major move.

The 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price action shows that the sell-side liquidity pool below $50K was absorbed, and selling pressure was met with substantial demand and buying interest.

This led to a significant bullish rebound, initiating an impulsive surge. A bullish divergence between the price and the RSI indicator also signaled the ongoing increase in buying pressure, acting as a catalyst for the uptrend.

However, the price has now reached a notable resistance region, marked by the 0.5 ($59K) and 0.618 ($62K) Fibonacci levels.

This area has the potential to halt the upward momentum and push the price back toward the $50K level. If Bitcoin faces rejection near this resistance, the recent upswing could be considered a temporary correction, indicating a potential continuation of the initial bearish trend in the upcoming days.

On-chain Analysis

By Shayan

Whales are key players in the Bitcoin market. Their buying and selling activity significantly influences price fluctuations and overall trends. Analyzing their behavior is crucial for understanding the market’s direction.

The accompanying chart presents the realized price levels for both short-term and long-term whales, which serve as important support and resistance zones.

Currently, Bitcoin has dipped below the buying levels of short-term whales, with the price declining toward the $49K-$50K range. However, there has been a demand rebound, and the price is now retracing toward the short-term whale realized price range of $64K-$65K.

This region is critical as it could act as substantial resistance. Some whales, who may be eager to exit their positions as they approach their breakeven levels, could trigger selling pressure. The price action in this area will be pivotal in determining Bitcoin’s upcoming market direction. If sellers dominate, it could signal a bearish trend continuation; otherwise, a successful break above this resistance could lead to renewed bullish momentum.